Republican Senator Susan Collins’ chances of defeating Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race could hinge on voters who supported her in the past but also backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. These ticket-splitters could be decisive in the Maine Senate race, which has emerged as one of the handful of Senate races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate in the November 3 elections. Polling points to a close race in the Pine Tree State.
Although Maine generally leans toward Democrats, Collins has been able to win reelection in the past due to her personal popularity and moderate image. But Democrats believe she may be vulnerable this year, as President Donald Trump’s unpopularity fuels a more challenging national environment for the GOP. Collins is an anomaly in the Senate, being the only Republican representing a state won by Harris in the 2024 election.
In fact, she is the only senator from either party representing a state that has consistently voted against her party on the presidential level. The electorate is expected to be even bluer this year. Historically, midterm turnout is generally higher among the party not in the White House.
These midterm dynamics and the partisan lean of Maine mean Collins must win a significant number of Harris voters this year. A key group to watch will be pro-choice women, who have supported Collins in the past but may be less willing to do so following her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, James Melcher, professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, told Newsweek.
This race will look far more like 2020 than 2014. Collins lost a lot of Democrats and independents,” he said. Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Ticket splitters are going to be a powerful force in Maine this year. Collins will have to win some voters who are also backing Democrat Hannah Pingree in the gubernatorial race. Polling suggests Pingree is a heavy favorite to win the race against Republican Bobby Charles and independent Rick Bennett.
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