Tesla carries a BUY rating at $364.24, roughly 8% upside, as megapacks, robotaxis, and Optimus robots now drive more value than car sales. Tesla's trailing P/E of 311 dwarfs NVIDIA's 44, revealing how much AI monetization is already priced in but not yet delivered on the income statement. Musk calls Optimus 'the biggest product ever,' targeting 1 million robots per year, but prediction markets give it only a 10% chance of launching by year-end.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Tesla didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be driven over the next year by megapacks, robotaxis, and humanoid robots more than by Model Y production.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $364.24, roughly 8.13% above the current $336.87 quote, producing a buy rating with 90% confidence. The price target reflects a stock priced almost entirely on optionality outside the auto P&L. Energy storage, FSD subscriptions, robotaxi, and Optimus create the value.
Tesla shares are down 25.09% year to date and 11.55% over the past month, sitting 21% below the 52-week high of $498.83. Q2 2026 showed the tension: revenue grew 25.5% to $28.24 billion and deliveries hit a record 480,126 vehicles, yet non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 estimate as operating margin compressed to 1.4% on AI and R&D spend. The offsetting story is scale in non-auto lines.
Energy deployed 13.5 gigawatt hours, Services revenue rose 50%, and FSD subscribers grew 56% year over year to 1.48 million. Elon Musk framed batteries as the AI bottleneck, saying "the energy business is also growing incredibly fast and I think will be crucial for the scale up of artificial intelligence data centers." That framing is why the power, cooling, and networking suppliers behind the AI buildout keep showing up in our free report on seven AI infrastructure stocks that aren't chipmakers. The bull scenario points to $454.51 over 12 months, a 34.92% return.
Robotaxi operates across seven U.S. markets with more than 380,000 unsupervised miles and a claimed impeccable safety record. Megapack 3 production starts in 2026 with capacity designed for 50 GWh, targeting hyperscaler power smoothing. Optimus Gen 3 lines are being installed at Fremont for a 1 million robots per year capacity design, with Musk calling it "the biggest product ever." Street consensus of $395.34 sits between our base and bull cases.
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