While experts disagree over CNN analyst Harry Enten’s claim Thursday characterizing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as the least popular Texas Republican Senate nominee of the century, they largely agree that Paxton is an unusually polarizing politician. That is fueling Texas' current political paradox: a Republican nominee with deeply negative favorability ratings who remains competitive in a state that continues to lean Republican as President Donald Trump's ratings hit record lows. Enten pointed to polling on CNN Thursday showing Paxton with a net favorability rating of negative 16 points and argued that no Texas Republican Senate nominee this century had been underwater at a comparable stage of a campaign.
While Paxton continues to post deeply negative image ratings, the Republican nominee remains locked in a highly competitive contest against Democratic nominee James Talarico that is drawing record spending. The Paxton campaign did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment. Not everyone agrees with Enten's characterization.
Jones, political scientist at Rice University in Houston and fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, told Newsweek the answer depends on how popularity is measured. "From a pure statistical perspective, it's incorrect," Jones said. He noted that outgoing Senator John Cornyn also faced significant image challenges with portions of the Republican electorate.
But Jones said Paxton's political situation differs in an important respect. "Democrats dislike Paxton with an intensity that's much greater than they disliked Cornyn in 2020.” At an event in Texas on Thursday, Trump said of Paxton, "He can be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest." Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said Paxton's political liabilities are forcing Republicans to spend heavily to defend a seat they would ordinarily expect to hold. "Paxton is a weak Republican nominee in a tough Republican year, so it will cost Texas and national donors many tens of millions of dollars to, perhaps, elevate Paxton over Talarico," Jillson told Newsweek.
At the same time, Jillson argued that Paxton's candidacy reflects a broader trend within the Texas Republican Party rather than a complete break from it. "Paxton is not unique in Texas Republican Party politics," Jillson said. Despite those unfavorable ratings, Jones said Paxton remains very much in contention.
"Right now, we're in a coin-flip situation. It's almost even money." A polling average compiled by PollsMax on Thursday showed Talarico leading Paxton by just 0.2 percentage points, while other recent surveys have results from a narrow Democratic lead to a slim Republican advantage. The paradox reflects a broader trend seen nationally in recent elections: Voters increasingly separate their personal views of candidates from their partisan voting behavior.
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