Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, or a Democratic governor since 1990. On November 3, it could end one of those streaks and extend the other. Decision Desk HQ’s October 19 polling averages had Democrat James Talarico up about two points on Republican Ken Paxton for Senate.
But Republican Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a similar margin. Such a split would not take much movement. In 2018, Abbott won by about 13 points and Senator Ted Cruz by less than three.
That was a far wider gap between the two races than today’s. Yet there was no split, because both men won. In a closely divided country, a small slice of voters can hand the parties different offices.
That is the trouble with the tidy “blue wave” story. A good national mood for Democrats does not necessarily tell us where they will win. Nor does it easily tell us what voters wanted from the winners.
Decision Desk HQ sees seven states as the likeliest to split. Several could pair a Democratic senator with a Republican governor, as Texas might. New Hampshire is the clearest case.
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is a strong favorite for the open Senate seat. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte is favored for a second term. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is a heavy favorite against Republican Representative Mike Collins.
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