The average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game in 2026-27 is higher than last season and two of the four previous campaigns. Yet we should have been even more royally entertained. Matches have averaged 2.88 non-penalty expected goals, the second most in the past six seasons.
Chances have been going to waste. If the 20 teams converted at the par rate, there would have been almost two extra goals per week. As few as that sounds, the proportion of games drawn is higher than in any past Premier League season.
Some tied matches might have been settled had the finishing been up to the mark. This is an issue across the Premier League. Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than expected, whether penalties are included or not, up from 10 last season.
While there are eight teams that are within a goal of their underlying numbers and may see an immediate change of fortunes this weekend, the remaining 12 are split 8-4 towards the underachievers. It is not just season-wide averages that are crumbling but week-by-week performances, too. There were 24 instances of a team scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied they should have across the first five match weeks, twice as many as occurred in the opening 50 games last season.
There are numerous possible explanations. Chance quality does not appear to be one of them, as the expected goals per non-penalty shot average only drops once more decimal places are applied than feels healthy. At first glance, volume of touches in the penalty area has barely shifted either.
A Premier League team is averaging 24.8 touches in the opposition box per game, down just 0.6 on last season. The breakdown by team is more revealing. Four of last season’s top five are having fewer box touches per match, with Aston Villa and Liverpool having seen around a third disappear from their averages.
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