A few weeks ago, in this column, I shared data showing that underdogs were winning games at a lower rate than at any time in recent history. That same separation exists between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 and those who aren't. It's fun to call anyone who votes in the poll an idiot and tell them what they got wrong, but overall, they seem to know what they're talking about.
Ranked teams are 85-6 against unranked teams so far this season. That .934 win percentage is easily the highest rate in the College Football Playoff Era. The next-highest was 0.852 in 2014.
And it extends further than straight-up winning. Ranked teams have gone 47-43-1 against the spread against unranked teams, too. That's a .522 win percentage, which may not seem very high, but it's the highest since the 2019 season, when they finished with a cover rate of .547.
Only three other seasons saw ranked teams finish over .500 ATS (2021, 2022, 2023), and none of those seasons was higher than .514. Obviously, there's a lot of season left to go, and things could even out, but it is interesting that all five of the 12 seasons in which ranked teams finished (or are currently) above .500 ATS have come in the last seven seasons. We may be seeing more parity at the top of the sport among title contenders, but there's evidence that the gap between the elite and the next tier is widening.
UCLA has been one of the bigger surprises to start the season. Many people pegged the Bruins as a potential sleeper before the year began due to Bob Chesney taking over the program and an infusion of talent and investment. Plus, the schedule wasn't overly taxing compared to what others in the Big Ten might face.
So far, the Bruins have lived up to their potential. They get their biggest test of the year this weekend, though. A road trip against Oregon -- even an Oregon that's been underperforming -- is never easy, and the Ducks pose a far bigger challenge than any of UCLA's first four opponents.
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