Juan Rosales Jr. went back to college in his 30s because he was tired of working dead-end jobs. He is now a full-time student at Long Beach City College, works part-time and expects to graduate in May with an associate degree in film, television and multimedia. Rosales still isn't sure college was the right idea.
He, however, describes the ordeal in considerably less reassuring terms: “I’m just taking a leap of faith, hoping that something is going to be there at the bottom.” There may be no better description of the American college proposition in 2026. For generations, college offered a remarkably durable bargain: spend four years and considerable money there and emerge better educated, more employable, with connections and prepared for adult life. The bargain hasn't disappeared, but nearly every component is now under strain, starting with the ever-growing bill.
The College Board estimates that the average annual student budget in 2025-26—including tuition, housing and food, books and other expenses—is $30,990 for an in-state student at a public four-year institution and $65,470 at a private nonprofit college. The latter works out to more than $260,000 over four years at today's price. Financial aid means many families pay substantially less, but the sticker price of tuition alone has risen dramatically over three decades: adjusted for inflation, average public four-year tuition and fees increased from $5,940 in 1995-96 to $11,950 today; at private nonprofit colleges, from $25,820 to $45,000.
Tuition isn't the only financial aspect of going to college that prospective students consider. An 18-year-old who enrolls also gives up four years when someone else can earn money, gain experience, and perhaps start saving. Among full-time workers 25 and older in 2025, Americans whose highest credential was a high school diploma earned a median $966 per week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Associate degree holders made $1,135. Bachelor's degree holders made $1,578. They also experienced considerably lower unemployment: 2.8 percent for bachelor's holders against 4.3 percent for high school graduates.
But averages accumulated across millions of adults aren't quite the question confronting a family with an acceptance letter on the kitchen table. They don't subtract the particular tuition bill in front of that family, the interest on its loans or the wages their 18-year-old could earn instead. Nor do they tell them whether this college for this student studying this subject at this price will pay.
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