Albertans are going to the polls to decide their place in Canada, in a referendum that has exposed deep divisions within the province, not least in the separatist movement itself. On Monday, voters will respond to the question of whether Alberta should remain in Canada, or hold a second binding independence referendum. A minority have long argued that separation is the only way to address their belief that Alberta is short-changed by its financial relationship with Ottawa, and prevented from fully exploiting the province’s vast fossil fuel reserves.
Any enthusiasm either side might have held headed into the referendum was muted after a deadly fire broke out at a major military base in the province. On Saturday afternoon, a blaze tore through the CFB Wainwright and into the nearby town. Canada’s armed forces announced with “profound sadness” that there had been multiple deaths and injuries.
The premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, argued for years that a referendum was not needed, but called one anyway after pressure from some within her United Conservative party. Nevertheless, Smith did not campaign in favour of independence, saying in June she estimated the cost of separating at about C$400bn (£212bn) for the transition and another $25bn-$50bn in annual costs associated with starting a new country. Smith’s caution prompted some of her supporters to accuse her of betraying the independence movement.
Opponents of independence have focused heavily on the costs of separation, with the University of Calgary’s school of public policy saying in June it could be up to $170bn over a five-year period and be highly unpredictable in the long term. The issue has not divided neatly along partisan lines. The former premiers Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley – from the rightwing Conservative and leftwing New Democratic party – have appeared on stage together, setting aside a bitter ideological rivalry that more usually defines Albertan politics.
Mark Carney, who grew up in the province, visited both Calgary and Edmonton last week to campaign for a united Canada. Carney, who previously served as the governor of the Bank of England, saw first-hand the effects of the Brexit vote and the economic upheaval that followed. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities,” he said.
Lukaszuk has driven more than 40,000km (24,855 miles) around Alberta in a 1992 motorhome named the Unity Bus and distributed at least 100,000 lawn signs. Rather than campaigning frequently, Carney has pointed to big projects his government is looking to move ahead with that would benefit the province, including a pipeline to the Pacific coast to increase the flow of Alberta crude oil to Asia. The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real,” said Carney.
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