More than 30 years after he first stood for Parliament, Nigel Farage seems to be approaching the climax of his long, storied, and controversial career. The big unknown: can the 62-year-old put his radical policies into practice by becoming prime minister? The latest revelations about the party's apparent attitude to donations have ended up dragging Reform into another cycle of bad headlines.
Arguably how it plays out depends on the answers to three central questions. The Reform leader is already facing investigations into his own finances and those of his party, and concerns about his friendship with a convicted fraudster. And now there is the possibility of yet more inquiries after an undercover sting which targeted Reform's handling of wealthy donors.
An investigation, filmed by Verbatim Investigations and broadcast by Channel 4, shows a senior Farage aide suggesting a way to get around electoral law to secure a foreign donation of £500,000 for the party. Reform denies any wrongdoing and claims to have "been the target of a hoax perpetuated by foreign funded climate change activists". Meanwhile Farage's personal popularity already seems to be slightly on the slide and before news of the investigation broke, I spoke to commentators about the party's prospects.
"Among true believers Nigel Farage's personal ratings remain as strong as ever," says Luke Tryl from pollsters More in Common. "But among the wider public he's taken a dip from being the party leader with the highest net approval this time last year, to being close to tying [Green Party leader Zack] Polanski at the bottom of the pack today". The barrage of questions about finances prompted the Reform leader to quit Parliament and call the Clacton by-election but his resounding victory in that contest last month has not quietened his critics.
Even some on Farage's own side believe the stresses of the summer have changed the Reform leader's mood during public appearances. "Why has Nigel, the most successful politician across 25 years, changed from the man who people want to have a drink with?" asks Tim Montgomerie, the Tory defector who was recently suspended from Reform for criticising senior figures. "He's looked miserable, defensive, and complaining.
He needs to get over it, and I think we'll see a better, more attractive Nigel in the coming days." Farage's biographer, the veteran political journalist Michael Crick, has also noticed a shift. "You've seen a much more aggressive Farage in the last three or four months. He's gone from the affable to the laughable," says Crick.
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