Three Senate races have just shifted in favor of Democrats four weeks ahead of the midterm elections as Republicans are attempting to maintain their control. The Cook Political Report has moved Kansas' race from Lean Republican to a Toss Up, New Hampshire from a Toss Up to Lean Democrat and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. President Donald Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt. But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.S.
Trump also won North Carolina in the 2024 election and Harris won New Hampshire. The new shifts add to already worrisome signs for Republicans as Democrats hope to capitalize on Trump's souring approval ratings and as affordability concerns rise across American households. "At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many," the forecaster said in part.
Cook now estimates Democrats will pick up two to six Senate seats, as the party needs four to take control. Cook highlights that Republicans remain hopeful in Michigan and Maine, but the momentum is against the president's party as Election Day nears. In Kansas, the GOP could lose the seat held by Republicans since 1919, the longest ever for any party, High Plains Public Radio says.
The position is currently held by Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, a doctor, who is battling Democrat Adam Hamilton for the seat. According to recent polling, Hamilton either leads by a very slim margin or the race is statistically tied. The forecaster previously highlighted that agriculture—and economic concerns impacting fertilizer and gas—are major factors in the Sunflower State and the rising prices make the race more competitive.
Cook labeled the race "Democrats’ Cinderella story of the cycle." Prediction market site Kalshi shows Marshall in the lead on Tuesday afternoon, as does Polymarket. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas is leading over Republican John E. Sununu in the battle for the U.S.
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