For a while there, Zack Wheeler looked like the very best bet you could have made in drafts this season. Despite coming off Thoracic Outlet syndrome surgery, he put up a 2.16 ERA through his first start after the All-Star break, capped off with a stretch where he averaged 10.8 strikeouts per start over a four-start span. He looked, for all intents and purposes, like the absolute best version of himself.
A lot can happen in a month, and in Wheeler's case, what has happened is his season-long ERA has risen by more than a run in the past month. He got absolutely demolished by the Mariners Monday night, who put up eight runs on nine hits, five walks, and four home runs … in Seattle. It was just about the worst possible outcome you could get from a starting pitcher of Wheeler's caliber, and it pushed his season-long ERA to 3.40.
In just a month, Wheeler has gone from third in the majors in ERA to 23rd. Sure, sure, you absolutely would have taken a 3.40 ERA from Wheeler when you drafted him; the run he is on is threatening to undo much of the good he did for your team in those first 16 starts. And we're very much at the point where you have to ask if he even deserves a spot in your lineup moving forward.
What makes this all confusing is that there isn't necessarily an obvious explanation for why things have gotten so bad for Wheeler. His velocity was down about 0.3 mph from his season-long average Monday, which is a pretty typical amount of variance for a single start. He also generated 15 swinging strikes on 103 pitches, a sign that the stuff is still viable.
The problem Monday was pretty clearly one of command and control. He had five walks, so that kind of goes without saying, but it's not just about walks; he also just caught too much of the zone too often, especially with his splitters down and his fastballs up. And that's been the story throughout this whole stretch for Wheeler.
His Stuff+ rating on FanGraphs.com has held steady around 105 pretty much all season (it is actually up a bit to 107 in this stretch, with 100 representing average), but his command rating. He put up a 108 Location+ mark through July 21, which would be tied for the sixth-best mark among all starters; in his previous five starts entering Monday, he was down to a 98, which would be a bottom-10 mark among all qualifiers for the season. Of course, you'll still see names like Dylan Cease, Cade Cavalli, Cristopher Sanchez, and Nolan McLean at that mark or worse, so it's not like you can't overcome that.
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