BIRMINGHAM, England — Britain’s largest opposition party wants to show it’s still on the electoral pitch during an annual gathering that kicks off Sunday. Despite Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch consolidating her position and seeing improved personal ratings, the party is still far from its government heyday, and faces an ongoing challenge on the right from Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK. Here’s what POLITICO’s team of reporters will be watching for as the Conservatives gather in Birmingham.
My biggest question for Badenoch’s speech at 11 a.m. Wednesday will be: can she end Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s honeymoon? Since July, Labour has jumped to 26% in the polls while the Tories lag behind Reform on 19%.
There will simply be fewer lobbyists and hangers-on than at Labour’s jamboree. Badenoch will spend this week arguing that Burnham, with his crusade against “40 years of neoliberalism,” has ushered in the kind of classic left-right ideological fight that she relishes. Expect her to bang on about cutting welfare to fund defense — two weak points for Labour.
And the self-described “badass Kemi” plans to be more abrasive than Burnham, who went out of his way not to attack anyone in his speech. I reckon two things will decide if she can cut through: her personal brand, and how far she can differentiate the Tories from Labour and Reform (plus, well, her own party from 2024). She will try to paint the Tories as the party of fiscal responsibility but that’s a crowded marketplace.
It’s worked for the Conservatives in the past but we aren’t in two-party politics anymore — though admittedly, the five-party split has become less dramatic since the summer. There will be economic policy announcements but perhaps not on the scale of last year’s pledge to scrap stamp duty. Badenoch has talked about getting rid of inheritance tax but aides appear to be suggesting an announcement isn’t ready.
I can’t wait to see the peacocking by would-be candidates for a general election. Tory aides are shouting from the hills that they are on a “war footing” and candidate selection is ramping up. Some of the high-profile Tories who were rejected for being too centrist are swerving this year’s conference, but former West Midlands Mayor Andy Street will be prominent on the fringe.
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