Weaker volume trends in July didn't keep truckload linehaul rates from ripping higher, according to a monthly report from Cass Information Systems. Cass' TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, increased 2.3% from June and was 8.6% higher year over year. July marked 19 consecutive y/y increases and the largest in four years. (The dataset is up 11.2% over the past two years.) The linehaul index includes for-hire spot rates but is historically heavily weighted to contract rates.
During the second-quarter earnings season, publicly traded carriers noted "a flight to quality," as shippers have grown increasingly selective about their partners. Potential legal blowback from selecting a non-compliant carrier, or one that can't deliver capacity as promised during peak season, were among the reasons. Schneider National's (NYSE: SNDR) one-way fleet captured double-digit rate increases on contract renewals in the quarter.
The company flagged the loss of a large dedicated customer, but said it plans to place that equipment into the spot market to take advantage of favorable market dynamics. Freight shipments captured by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS) fell 4.8% y/y during July, an acceleration from a 4.1% y/y decline in June, and further separation from May, when the index was down just 1.2% y/y and seemingly approaching a positive inflection. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments were down 2.2% from June, which was down 2.9% from May.
All domestic transportation modes are included in the index, but TL accounts for over 50%, with less-than-truckload representing approximately 25%. "Some of the softness is the result of higher fuel prices, but to a large extent, volumes are still soft because capacity is declining," the report said. "The Cass data are trucking intensive, among other modes, but rail intermodal is gaining share from trucking this year, also pressuring this index." (Total intermodal carloads on the U.S.
Class I railroads increased approximately 5% y/y in July.) July 2026y/y2-yearm/mm/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index Table: Cass Information Systems (SA – seasonally adjusted) Appearing at an investor conference last week, Werner Enterprises' (NASDAQ: WERN) Chairman and CEO Derek Leathers was unfazed by the seasonal slowdown in July. "There's no concern, if you will, from my perspective about … some of these little snippets of news that we've seen in July," Leathers said Tuesday at Deutsche Bank's Chicago Industrials Summit. He said the supply-led recovery is still in the early stages, noting that the current administration is not backing off its crackdown on bad actors.
Werner saw the fruits from its one-way fleet restructuring during the second quarter. Revenue per truck per week (excluding fuel surcharges) jumped 28% y/y, as miles per truck were up 16% and revenue per total mile increased 10%. The sizeable rate increase occurred even though Werner had the added headwinds of carrying only half the spot market exposure it had a year ago, and an average length of haul that was 100 miles greater y/y. (Longer lengths of haul usually accompany lower per-mile rates.) The carrier's third-quarter forecast calls for a 10% to 13% y/y increase in rate per mile.
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