Analysts and strategists believe it may be too late for President Donald Trump to save his party from a midterm disaster, and that this year’s midterm results—whether they favor the GOP or not—are likely already “baked in.” Trump is currently on a campaign-style tour of the United States, touting his achievements and agenda across Senate and House battlegrounds and urging voters to “close your eyes and pretend I’m on the ballot.” From the Oval Office, too, the administration is focused on addressing some of the electorate’s key concerns, such as its plan, met with opposition from Congress, to import Russian diesel to lower domestic prices. But the party still trails Democrats in most forecasts for both chambers, and recent polling suggests there may be too little time to sway voters before November 3. A Politico survey of 2,001 adults from October 3 to 5 found that most Americans would be no more likely to vote Republican even if Trump announced that the Iran war had ended, that he had created 100,000 new jobs, or if he were able to lower gas prices by $1 per gallon.
The forecaster Race to the WH gave Democrats an 88 percent chance of securing a House majority as of Thursday, and a 72 percent chance of winning the Senate. According to Politico, just a small share of voters could be convinced to change their minds in the weeks leading up to the election. Only 29 percent said that gas prices dropping by $1 from an average of $4.37 per gallon at the end of the polling period would make them more inclined to vote Republican.
This figure slid to 28 percent when the question turned to Iran, with 20 percent even saying that an end to the war would make them less likely to vote Republican. Other hypotheticals, such as a trade deal with China or inflation falling to a five-year low—a now-impossible scenario—had a comparably small effect on voting intentions, particularly among the crucial undecided group. Of those who said they were still unsure of their November 3 vote, only 16 percent said plummeting gas prices might push them closer to a Republican candidate, while just 17 percent were potentially swayed by the Iran war ending.
Those aren’t swing voters. These are hardcore partisans.” Klink said Trump “can reduce losses if he delivers” on the issues outlined in the survey, though he notes not all of this responsibility will fall on the president. According to AdImpact figures shared with Newsweek, the GOP and its affiliates have spent about $1.6 billion on Senate ads this cycle, compared with $1.1 billion for Democrats.
And aside from messaging and ad spend—an endeavor with “diminishing returns” according to some—others have posited another option for Republicans hoping to maximize their odds. "Over the last 3 weeks, you're going to see Republicans desperately trying to pretend they have distance from Donald Trump,” the Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson told Newsweek. A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee (RNC)
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