US president Donald Trump has given a fairly clear description of what the next phase of the Iran war could look like. The Iranians had tried to rebuild their radar equipment, Trump stated after the most recent wave of US strikes. "We waited until it was almost built, and then we hit it," he said.
On Tuesday, American forces once again attacked several targets in Iran. According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the targets destroyed included "air defense sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites." Iran responded by firing rockets and drones at US facilities in the region. With this, the war moved on to what CENTCOM had indicated just a few days earlier could be the strategy for the next phase.
According to the news portal Axios, it was considering limited strikes, at regular intervals if necessary, to prevent Iran from reconstituting its military capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. An American government representative used a concept from Israeli security policy to describe this idea: He called it "mowing the grass." The metaphor refers to a strategy that doesn't even attempt to promise that an opponent will be defeated once and for all. It is enough to regularly reduce the enemy's military capabilities to the point where the threat remains manageable.
When the grass grows back, you "mow" it again. Applied to the situation in Iran, this would mean the US keeping an eye on which military capabilities the enemy is reconstituting, and attacking once it crosses a certain threshold. In the past few months, the US has scored some military successes.
US forces have significantly reduced Iran's military capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, and have begun clearing Iranian sea mines. However, these successes will not last. Tehran is repairing or procuring new radar installations, anti-aircraft positions, and anti-ship missiles.
US bombs could certainly destroy important Iranian positions with targeted strikes. But the knowledge and the industrial basis of Iranian military technology would remain. Reconstruction can therefore be delayed, but not prevented.
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