President Donald Trump’s administration has asked the Supreme Court to revive new postal restrictions on mail ballots, potentially forcing election officials to change established systems as voting begins. The administration argues the changes are needed to protect election integrity, while opponents warn they could disrupt voting in states where ballots are routinely cast by mail. Under the plans, states would be required to use United States Postal Service (USPS)-approved voting envelopes with unique barcodes and provide voter information through a federal system before ballots are mailed.
The administration asked the Supreme Court on September 3 to lift a lower-court block preventing enforcement of key provisions before the November election. A fast ruling would be significant because the 2026 midterms include pivotal contests in states where hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions, of voters use the mail. Newsweek has identified eight races in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and California with the greatest combination of mail-voting exposure and political significance.
USPS says the rule would improve tracking and help enforce federal law; challengers argue the executive branch lacks authority to make states alter election administration. A federal judge temporarily blocked the mandatory provisions while considering a longer injunction. The final USPS rule was published August 26, 69 days before the election.
It says officials must provide names, addresses and unique ballot identifiers through a federal portal, and permits USPS to reject noncompliant mailings. That timetable matters most in states where mail voting is routine. Federal election data show 74.7 percent of Arizona voters and 44.1 percent of Nevada voters cast mail ballots in 2024.
Arizona transmitted 3.58 million mail ballots, while Nevada sent 2.07 million. With these figures in mind, Newsweek has identified the following eight midterm races as likely to be impacted by this policy change. Newsweek reached out to every campaign mentioned in this article, the USPS, and the Justice Department for comment through emails and website contact forms on Friday morning.
Arizona relies heavily on early and mail voting, placing its gubernatorial contest between Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs among the races most exposed to any late change in ballot procedures. Hobbs currently enters the closing stretch with a clear advantage, according to polls and prediction markets. A HighGround survey conducted August 15 to 18 among 400 likely voters put her at 49.5 percent and Biggs at 34.3 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
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