United States President Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks in Islamabad between Washington and Tehran ended without a deal is a substantial escalation in the war on Iran, analysts say. In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said the US Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz”. The blockade began at 10am Washington, DC, time ( ) on Monday.
Trump’s comments have raised concerns about the status of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced last week. Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is “absolutely an escalation” in the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Trump has said Iran holds no cards, and this attempt to leverage a blockade on Iran would constitute an attempt to further pressure Iran to comply with US goals in the negotiations,” he said.
What could the blockade look like? Here’s what we know: Shortly after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran essentially took control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for the global energy market. Before the war began, 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped through the strait.
After the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire came into force on Wednesday, Tehran confirmed it would allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the two-week agreement, easing a disruption that had sent global oil and gas prices soaring. However, it has been unclear whether Iran has been collecting fees for passage during the ceasefire. During the war, only a few ships from specific countries considered friendly to Iran and those that paid tolls were granted safe passage.
After weekend talks in Pakistan ended without a deal, Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and also accused Iran of “extortion”. He added that the US Navy would hunt down and interdict ships in international waters that had paid Iran a toll to traverse the strait. Later, the US military said it would block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM), which has responsibility for operations in the Middle East, told the news agency that the US military will enforce a blockade in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and it will apply to all vessels regardless of flag. Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at City St George’s, University of London, and the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, told Al Jazeera that Washington’s actions wouldn’t be a classic blockade but a case of “sanctions with warships doing the bidding of President Trump”. Chuah said the legality of such a blockade by the US is “tricky”.
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