It was another bold statement from United States President Donald Trump: An edict in his usual inflated style, claiming that the US had almost sealed Iran off from the rest of the world. On Sunday, CENTCOM announced Task Force Iron Gate – a unit targeting land routes and the Caspian Sea, which will aim to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials. Trump’s message on Truth Social claimed that the task force was “in full force and effect” in Iran – and that between this and the US naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the US had virtually cut off what enters and exits the country.
But analysts say a small intelligence-focused unit cannot seal Iran’s borders or stop its extensive procurement networks without regional cooperation. They did warn, however, that attempts to disrupt these networks could draw neighbouring countries into the conflict and undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts in the US-Israel war on Iran. Task Force Iron Gate aims to find out where “weapons systems are coming in, how they could potentially be cut off” and how “Iran is transporting its energy”, Michael Mulroy, a former US deputy assistant defence secretary for the Middle East, has told Al Jazeera.
Based in Tampa, Florida, the unit will coordinate with other US government agencies “on preventing the movement of advanced weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal revenue streams across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea”, CENTCOM has said. Analysts said the task force could coordinate sanctions enforcement, pressure foreign suppliers, and work with partner countries to disrupt smuggling. According to Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, the US mission would rely on a combination of satellite imagery, drones, intercepted communications, financial intelligence and intelligence-sharing.
US media have reported that Russia has sent drone components and explosives to Iran via the Caspian Sea. There are also claims that Russian technology could be helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles. Krieg agreed the task force would combine methods, but stated that it would operate largely as an “intelligence fusion cell”.
The obstacle the US mission will face, however, is political rather than technological, he argued. Iran’s neighbours will be largely unwilling to cooperate. Azerbaijan could cooperate discreetly, while Turkmenistan would be “extremely reluctant” to jeopardise its neutrality or relationships with Russia and China, said the professor.
Pakistan is particularly unlikely to participate openly because it is currently mediating between Washington and Tehran, he added. Turkiye also has little interest in turning its border with Iran into another confrontation, said Krieg. Rami Khouri, a public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut and a non-resident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, has previously told Al Jazeera that Iran’s history as a trading nation for thousands of years makes the US mission near impossible.
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