The US Republican Party is entering the midterm elections with Donald Trump's administration seemingly unable to either win or diplomatically resolve the Iran war. If the Republican lose control of the US Congress, the administration will have to navigate an entirely different political landscape for the rest of Trump's second term, but the course of the war is not decided just in Washington — or in Tehran. Seeking to identify key factors that could tip the balance towards war or peace in Iran, DW spoke to three analysts: Omid Memarian of DAWN, a Washington-based think tank focused on reforming US Middle East policy; Finland-based political scientist Leila Morrovati; and Babak Rezaei Daryakenari of Leiden University in the Netherlands.
A Democratic victory would push Trump to focus more on domestic issues and would likely expose the financial costs of the war in the US Congress, Omid Memarian told DW. However, Trump could continue limited strikes on Iran without formally declaring war. Memarian predicts that Trump will seek a way out that "saves face" after the Tuesday election.
Referring to Trump, the analyst says Tehran is engaged in a "big gamble with someone who does not behave like a conventional politician." This increases the risk of renewed attacks. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Babak Rezaei Daryakenari makes a similar point: "The president has broad authority and freedom of action, especially in foreign policy and the conduct of military operations. A Republican defeat, even with increased pressure from Congress, doesn't necessarily stop new attacks." Israel's October 27 election ended in deadlock.
Neither the coalition around incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nor the camp supporting former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot managed to secure an outright majority. Memarian warns the political uncertainty could push Netanyahu to take serious moves while he still wields power, making the transition period the "most fragile and dangerous" for renewed escalation. A change of government in Israel would not fundamentally alter Israel's Iran policy, Memarian says.
Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, "may be more deferential to America" and coordinate more closely with Washington. But ties with Trump are personal, and Eisenkot "certainly won't be like Netanyahu, who could sell any plan or scenario to Trump." Rezaei Daryakenari stresses that Israel's security concerns about Iran "are not limited to Netanyahu himself." A new government could change the timing of a confrontation and its coordination with Washington, but the security establishment and ruling coalition would also shape the risk of an attack, he said. Iran's nuclear program remains the biggest open issue between Washington and Tehran, with the US rejecting the Iranian narrative that the program is meant only for civilian use.
But the two sides are also at odds on how the talks themselves should be set up, says Memarian. "The US wants negotiations to start not only with a focus on Iran's nuclear program but with concessions right at the outset," he said. Iran, by contrast, wants sanctions lifted and frozen assets released before nuclear talks begin.
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