The eastern Pacific could soon become home to two developing tropical systems tracking across nearly the same stretch of ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), with forecasters monitoring disturbances south of Baja California that may organize into tropical cyclones over the coming days. The potential back-to-back development comes as Tropical Storm Lowell continues churning north-northwest of Hawaii. Lowell recently prompted tropical storm warnings in parts of the state and has weakened from its hurricane status earlier this week.
Its presence, coupled with the possibility of two new cyclones forming behind it, highlights what has been an active year across the Pacific basin. Forecasters warned that the Pacific hurricane season could be more active than normal this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) seasonal outlook called for above-normal activity in the eastern and central Pacific, citing expectations that El Niño conditions would persist through hurricane season.
El Niño typically increases tropical cyclone activity across the Pacific by creating a more favorable atmospheric environment for storm formation. Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email for comment. One system, designated EP96, has already become increasingly organized several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
The NHC said environmental conditions appear favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two. Forecasters currently give the disturbance an 80 percent chance of development over 48 hours and a 90 percent chance over the next seven days. The system is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph.
Meanwhile, a second area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles south of Baja California this weekend or early next week. While that system does not yet exist, forecasters say gradual development could occur once it forms, with a medium 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days. The disturbance is moving in the same direction as EP96.
The unusual aspect of the forecast is that both systems are expected to emerge in roughly the same general region and follow similar west-northwest tracks away from Mexico and into the open Pacific. If both eventually organize, they could spend part of their lifecycles moving through adjacent stretches of ocean. It's also possible the two systems could get close enough to each other to interact—known as the Fujiwhara effect—that could lead to the storms merging.
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