This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Where a storm surge strikes along a stretch of U.K. coastline is decided by global climate patterns in the Atlantic, Arctic and even further afield—according to new research led by Cambridge University. Studying 70 years of sea level data, the researchers found that global atmospheric conditions thousands of kilometers distant can determine which coastlines bear the brunt of extreme storm surges around the North Sea, English Channel and Irish Sea.
Scientists have long known that large-scale climate patterns determine storm tracks in northwestern Europe. But the new study shows that the same climate patterns also decide which stretch of coast may be more likely to be hit by a storm surge. The research is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.
Storm surges are challenging to forecast, being caused by a complex interplay of wind, low surface pressure and coastal geography. Knowledge of why storm surges occur in certain locations could help forecasters provide warnings of flooding to coastal communities further in advance. "If we can identify conditions emerging in, for example, the Atlantic that might result in a storm surge in East Anglia, then we can pinpoint parts of the coast that should prepare for flooding," said Lisanne Blok, lead author of the research from Cambridge Earth Sciences.
Storm surges happen when strong winds and low pressure combine to push a 'bulge' of seawater inland and overtop flood defenses. When combined with high tides and extreme wave conditions, extreme sea levels can result, in turn causing coastal flooding. In late January 1953, a deep area of low pressure moved down the North Sea, pushing a massive body of water along the east coast.
Combined with a high spring tide, sea levels were 3 meters (10 feet) higher than expected—leading to devastating floods in Britain, the Netherlands and Belgium. In 2013, another storm surge hit the east coast of Britain—this time with higher water levels than in 1953—although modern flood defenses averted disaster on the same scale. The North Sea is particularly prone to extreme storm surges.
Its narrow funnel shape, particularly between East Anglia and the Netherlands, pushes water inland and its shallow basin amplifies the surge height. "The storm surges are very dynamic and complex in this region," said Blok. "There is also heightened risk, because lots of people live along the low-lying coastal regions bordering the North Sea." The researchers analyzed records of reconstructed historic sea level data from around northwestern Europe.
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