El Nino is set to intensify to exceptional levels in the coming months and persist into early 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned, raising the prospect of worsening droughts, floods and extreme heat across the globe. The United Nations weather agency said on Thursday forecasts show a nearly 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will continue through February, the strongest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Nino/La Nina update. The naturally occurring weather phenomenon warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
El Nino will peak towards the end of this year, though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, said the WMO. Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and “we should not be surprised if this record is broken”, Saulo said.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. But scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming as a result of burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.
We must win that race.” “This exceptional El Nino … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said. El Nino typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts nine months to a year. Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
The UN agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong – meaning it is set to reach the highest level out of four. The WMO said there was an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Nino will continue through to February. El Nino can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific.
Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics. For September-November, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures “across almost all land areas”, alongside rainfall patterns showing a “pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Nino”, the weather agency said.
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