President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada is getting personal for American farmers. After trade talks between the two longtime allies fell apart in mid-August 2026, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian imports worth roughly US$20 billion (CAD$27 billion). Canada responded on Aug. 25, 2026, by announcing its own plan to put retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on the same value of U.S. goods, effective Sept. 8.
Canada’s list includes dairy products and agricultural equipment, and there is an unspoken threat that it could expand to a crucial component in fertilizer that U.S. farmers rely on. I have studied agriculture and water quality for more than a decade, including whether trade rules change how farmers manage their land. In my assessment, the enduring effect of this trade war on U.S. agriculture, if it continues to escalate, won’t be a single bad season.
Across thousands of farms, farmers may have to reduce their fertilizer use as prices – already high from supply disruptions because of the war in Iran – rise. It may have little visible consequence at first, but the lasting impact could emerge later in smaller future harvests if this trade war continues. Canada’s tariffs aren’t directly aimed at farmers, but farms will feel the cost if they go into effect.
A tariff is a tax on imported goods paid by the importer, effectively raising the cost of those goods. When China responded to U.S. tariffs during the first Trump administration in 2018, its retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. soybeans and automobiles, directly affecting the American agricultural sector. Research shows U.S. agricultural exports to China fell by $7 billion to $10 billion a year, as Chinese buyers shifted to Brazilian suppliers.
Canada’s tariff list for Sept. 8 appears to match U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar. I believe agriculture is caught in the broader fallout, not directly targeted. However, the effect will still reach farms.
Canada is one of the largest markets for American food, importing about $28 billion in U.S. agricultural products in 2025. Both U.S. and Canada are also deeply integrated in agricultural trade and farm-equipment markets. Farm equipment is assembled from parts that cross the border.
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