With just over two months to go before the US's midterm elections, Democrats face a problem that goes beyond the familiar question of how to beat President Donald Trump: they are still arguing over what the Democratic Party should actually stand for. The divide between progressives and moderates has been visible throughout this year’s primary season. But in recent weeks, it has become harder to dismiss as an internal family quarrel.
Progressive insurgents have scored a series of significant victories, while establishment Democrats have responded with growing anxiety about whether candidates identified with the left can win in November – particularly in swing districts and Republican-leaning states. The irony is that both camps believe they have learned the same lesson from the agonising 2024 defeat. For progressives, the lesson is that moderation has failed.
They argue that Democrats spent too long defending the status quo, speaking in cautious technocratic language and relying on opposition to Trump rather than offering voters a compelling economic alternative. Their answer is a much more aggressive populism: lower healthcare costs, higher wages, stronger unions, action against corporate power and a political system less dependent on wealthy donors. For more moderate centrists, the lesson is almost the opposite.
They argue that Democrats cannot afford to frighten voters in competitive states by embracing candidates or rhetoric that Republicans can portray as socialist, anti-business or culturally extreme – in their view, all recipes for disaster. That argument has been given fresh ammunition by the primary results. In Florida, democratic socialist Angie Nixon pulled off a huge surprise victory over moderate Alex Vindman in the Democratic Senate primary.
In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated establishment-backed Haley Stevens. And in California, progressive Aisha Wahab overcame heavy spending from outside groups to win a special congressional election. To progressives, these are not isolated upsets.
They are evidence that Democratic voters are rejecting the old party establishment. But there is a crucial distinction between winning a Democratic primary and winning a general election – and that is where the moderates' argument begins. Florida, once the ultimate swing state, is perhaps the clearest test.
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