Allan Lichtman has outlined a new 10-point framework for assessing presidential greatness ahead of the release of his upcoming book on transformative American leaders. The political analyst built his public reputation through the Keys to the White House, a system designed to forecast presidential elections. Lichtman is often dubbed the "Nostradamus" of presidential politics because his model correctly predicted the winner of most U.S. presidential races for decades, making him one of the country's most closely watched election forecasters.
His record came under renewed scrutiny, however, after he incorrectly predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election, a race ultimately won by President Donald Trump. His newest project turns away from prediction and instead asks a different question: what makes a president historically great? The framework serves as the foundation of Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation, out September 22, which identifies a dozen presidents whom Lichtman believes fundamentally altered the country's trajectory.
Lichtman told Newsweek that his new model is centered on consequence rather than popularity. According to the historian, the 10 keys measure the extent to which presidents seized the defining challenges of their eras and changed the nation's course. Public approval, contemporary polling and ideological agreement are not part of the calculation.
"The clearest illustration is that I included James K. Polk and excluded Dwight Eisenhower," Lichtman said. "Eisenhower was a fine president who outranks Polk in nearly every expert survey.
But Polk doubled the size of continental America, and Eisenhower changed the country far less. If the framework measured esteem, that result would be indefensible. It measures consequence, so it follows." The 10 keys include crisis leadership, transformational change, moral vision, stewardship of executive power, coalition building, institution building, diplomatic influence and adaptability.
More specifically, the categories are: Transformative leadership alone is not enough to qualify as great, Lichtman argues. He says candidates for inclusion must operate within the broad traditions of American democracy. That principle helps explain why Richard Nixon and Donald Trump are excluded despite their undeniable influence on national politics.
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