WASHINGTON, April 15 ( ) - U.S. import prices increased less than expected in March, though the trend still pointed to firming imported inflationary pressures as the Middle East conflict boosts oil prices and snarls supply chains. Economists shrugged off the report from the Labor Department on Wednesday and said they expected the oil price surge from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show in April's import price data. "The less-than-expected increase in import prices most likely reflects timing differences between when the oil that entered U.S. ports was shipped and the spot price of oil," said John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital.
"The average crude oil price arriving in the United States in March was up 7.8% compared to a Brent price of 45.5%. The bulk of the March oil price increase has yet to show up in this report." Import prices rose 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in February, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, increasing 2.0% after a previously reported 1.3% rise in February.
The BLS asks businesses to provide import prices for the first business day of the month, or as close to that day as possible. Oil prices have jumped more than 35% since the conflict started at the end of February. President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which halted seaborne trade in and out of Iran.
The war has also disrupted shipments of commodities, including fertilizer. In the 12 months through March, import prices shot up 2.1%. That was the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024, and followed a 1.0% increase in February.
"Whether it is higher shipping costs from supply disruptions or foreign manufacturers no longer offsetting the tariffs with their own product price cuts, import price inflation is on its way up, and then adding insult to injury, once the ships dock here, the imported goods are hit with the tariffs," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The consumer is losing, and will continue to lose." Higher oil prices raised consumer and producer prices in March, government data showed recently. Imported fuel prices rose 2.9% last month after advancing 2.4% in February.
Imported natural gas prices tumbled 71.0%. The BLS said effective with March's report, "directly collected data for import natural gas prices is replaced with non-survey sources for price index calculation." It said the switch to an alternative data source did not create a break in the series. Imported food prices gained 0.5%.
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