The US Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 3.75% - 4%. The decision comes within a week of the midterm elections and after the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in three years at its September meeting. "The overwhelming consensus, the overwhelming judgement, is that what we've done in this monetary medicine is starting to work some," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, referring to September's interest rate rise.
Figures published after the Fed's announcement showed the US economy growing at a stronger pace than expected, with inflation running above the Fed's target. An interest rate tells people and businesses how much it costs to borrow money – such as with credit cards, mortgages, or business loans – but also what return they get for saving cash. The Fed influences interest rates in the US through its target range for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate used by commercial banks for overnight borrowing.
In its decision to hold rates steady this month, the Fed said that while inflation remains high, it wanted to gather more information before making another decision to change rates. The Fed also noted that while there was uncertainty, the US economy remained resilient. Warsh acknowledged that inflation remained too high, but noted that there were other signs - such as tightening credit conditions - that the economy was moving in the right direction.
There is plenty more economic data to come between now and the committee's next meeting, the Fed chair added, which should paint a more detailed picture of the state of the economy. At that point, Warsh said, "we'll be, I think, better positioned to determine the right policy decision and the stance of policy." While last month the committee signalled there could be one more rate rise this year, Warsh would not be drawn out on where he thinks they will go in six weeks' time. "A lot of things can happen, so I'm not going to be able to share with you my musings." The decision to hold rates steady was not unanimous.
While 10 of the 12 committee members voted to keep rates unchanged, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted to increase rates to 4%-4.25%, from its current 3.75%-4%. The bank's next meeting will be held over 8-9 December. Warsh said things are moving in the right direction, while the US economy is performing very strongly.
The US economy grew by 3.4% on an annualised basis in the three months to September, stronger than analysts had expected. That strong growth was driven by an acceleration in investment, and strong consumer spending. While there was an annualised increase in personal spending of 3.8%, the annualised increase in private investment was a huge 19.4% which analysts say was largely due to investment in artificial intelligence.
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