Iran says seven oil tankers have caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz as its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warns that renewed US attacks could trigger a wider response and the world braces for the possibility of renewed hostilities. Although analysts consider a US attack before the November 3 midterm elections unlikely, sabre-rattling on both sides has raised fears that escalating rhetoric could give way to renewed attacks with control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian nuclear facilities at the heart of the conflict. But the critical Gulf waterway, through which one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were shipped before the war, was not even an issue before the United States and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on February 28.
Furthermore, talks over Iran’s nuclear programme were under way at the time. As the US wrestles with depleted defensive weapons stocks and a global energy crisis mounts, how does the land lie now before potential renewed strikes and how does it differ from February before any of this began? Unlike in February before the war began, the US and Iran would be fighting it out on several different fronts if attacks resume.
While the objective of US-Israeli strikes on Iran was initially to topple its leadership, another aim was to weaken Iran’s regional allies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. Announcing the offensive, Trump pledged to prevent Tehran-backed groups from attacking US forces and destabilising the region. While the offensive failed to force a change in Iran’s government, Hamas has been severely weakened as Israel continues to attack Gaza – with more than 1,400 Palestinians killed since a US-backed “ceasefire” was announced in October last year.
Hezbollah’s retaliation against targets in northern Israel after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the first US-Israeli air strikes brought Lebanon into the war in early March. Israel launched a bombing campaign against sites in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut it considers Hezbollah strongholds and, at one point, occupied about one-fifth of the country, displacing more than one million people. It still occupies significant land on Lebanon’s southern border.
The biggest geographical change, however, has been the emergence of the Gulf’s waterways and energy infrastructure as key targets. Iranian attacks on US military assets and civilian infrastructure have exposed Gulf countries to the consequences of a war they had hoped to avoid. Urban Coningham, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Al Jazeera: “US-Iran negotiations had previously centred on Iran’s regional allies and nuclear programme.
The Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Gulf have now become central points of contention.” While the Gulf has experienced attacks before, Coningham said the scale and “velocity” of recent Iranian strikes, including on oil and gas infrastructure, have marked a significant shift. The Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, which had been freely open to international shipping before the war, now gives Tehran a means of imposing costs far beyond its borders. Iran continues to threaten and attack shipping there while the US maintains its own blockade of Iranian ports.
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