The US Open, of all the four slams, is notoriously the hardest to predict the winners of as it falls at a time of year when eight months into the season the players are more likely than not nursing aches and pains with their bodies battered from the grind of the tour. It's also played on a surface where more players fancy their chances; many have love-hate relationships with clay and grass but hard courts are their bread and butter. The US Open is now a three-week event, week one is fan week, which this year saw five-time champion Roger Federer return for an exhibition, Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik win their first Grand Slam title after being crowned mixed doubles champions - in a competition that saw a return to Flushing Meadows of six-time champion Serena Williams - and the qualifying competition, which started with 15 Brits in the draw.
The main draw starts on Sunday and contains nine Brits, with a record five coming through qualifying. The men's competition is headed up by Sascha Zverev in the absence of Jannik Sinner [knee injury] and the women's by world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player If we break down the draws starting with the men, the top half is headed up in the absence of Sinner by Zverev, top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time and with a major title under his belt having won the French Open earlier this year.
The draw has been kind to the German, who will fancy his chances and comes into the tournament with an 18-2 record at Grand Slam level this year. The question, as always, is how will he cope with the pressure having fallen early in both Masters 1000 events in the lead-up as the top seed. Working from top to bottom, the second quarter is headed up by the Australian and sixth seed Alex de Minaur, projected to meet Zverev in the quarter-finals.
He might not have Djokovic or Alcaraz in his section but he does have former finalist Taylor Fritz, French Open finalist Flavio Cobolli and last year's semi-finalist Felix Auger-Aliassime. The bottom half is absolutely stacked and features all five former US Open champions in Alcaraz, Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. Working our way down next up is Djokovic's quarter, which features Medvedev, finalist in Cincinnati Francis Tiafoe, finalist in Canada Brandon Nakashima, and a second-round meeting with one of Wawrinka or Matteo Berrettini.
That's before any talk of a meeting with Alcaraz - the defending champion who heads up the final quarter. The seeds in the Alcaraz section include winner in Canada, Ben Shelton, winner in Cincinnati, Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik, Tommy Paul and big-hitting Roman Safiullin, who has beaten him before and is, for me, one of his toughest tests for the Spaniard having not played a singles match since April. The main story involving Sabalenka in the first quarter who is not only looking to try and become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open titles but she's also trying to hold on to the world No 1 ranking.
On paper her draw isn't too bad until the quarter-finals, where she could face Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova. The worry is Sabalenka's lack of form going 17-7 since April and not having won a title since March. She is without a Grand Slam title so far in 2026 and is looking vulnerable.
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