TSLA beat revenue estimates by 7% with record Q2 deliveries, but EPS missed by 39% as operating income collapsed 57% year over year. Tesla trades at a trailing P/E of 311 while free cash flow turned negative $1 billion last quarter as capex more than doubled. The actionable signal arrives when auto gross margin stabilizes above 17% or breaks below 15%, likely not before Q3 earnings on October 21.
The most widely read finance newsletter on Substack isn't published by a bank, it's Doomberg, where 383,000+ readers get the energy and macro analysis the mainstream press misses. 24/7 Wall St. readers save 17% on their first year here. At $342.27, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) sits at the center of one of Wall Street's sharpest analyst splits, with the consensus rating landing at hold. The stock sits at the center of one of the sharpest analyst splits on Wall Street after a Q2 report that beat on revenue and missed badly on earnings.
Tesla remains the world's most valuable automaker, but the business it is being valued as looks less like a car company every quarter. Automotive still anchors the model, with $20.006 billion in Q2 vehicle sales, while Services and Other revenue jumped 50% and energy storage climbed to 13.5 GWh. Robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD monetization are now the story the multiple depends on.
Shares are down 13.23% over the past month and 23.89% year to date, setting up the current standoff. The bull case starts with volume. Tesla posted record Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year over year, and revenue of $28.236 billion, beating estimates by 7.10%.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja said the company "exited Q2 with our largest order backlog since 2023." Software is the second pillar. FSD reached 1.48 million active subscriptions, up 56% YoY, with a 55%+ attach rate on new North American deliveries. Robotaxi has driven more than 380,000 unsupervised miles across six cities with what management called an impeccable safety record.
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