Waymo argued last week that fully autonomous vehicles are not possible without using a mix of sensors, and that “pure end-to-end” AI systems are not safe enough — shots at Tesla, despite the Alphabet-owned company not naming names. The company took these swings in a blog post and an interview with Axios just one week ahead of a September 3 event where Tesla is expected to formally introduce its two-seater Cybercab into its own small-but-growing robotaxi fleet. Waymo also announced three new markets on Tuesday morning, further extending its robotaxi network, which is serving customers in more than a dozen U.S. cities.
Despite being technical and a bit wonky, Waymo’s claims kicked off a social media fight that lasted all weekend. Innovator dilemma 101.” “How it feels to say your data and record of success leads you to believe driverless mileage, AI interpretability, and multiple sensor types are critical for safe, fully autonomous driving at scale,” wrote Ethan Teicher, a Waymo spokesperson, while sharing a John Wick promo image that depicts more than a dozen guns pointed at the head of Keanu Reeves’ character. The metaphorical knives — or guns, apparently — are out because if Tesla can prove the Cybercab is capable of performing at scale, it would set up a major fight between the two companies and their disparate approaches to developing autonomous vehicles.
At stake is a market that could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. For years, this fight was more academic or philosophical than anything. But last week Waymo flexed its real-world experience.
Now, after more than 200 million real-world miles, the data is clear: safe, fully autonomous operations at scale require more. By combining inputs from cameras, lidar, and radar, the Waymo Driver creates a rich, redundant world view that no single sensor can replicate.” Thirumalai also wrote that a pure end-to-end neural architecture that “takes in raw pixels and directly outputs steering commands” — which is Tesla’s approach to autonomy — will “run the risk of black box failures.” “Even the best AI models with trillions of parameters still hallucinate,” he told Axios. You have to deal with the consequences of it.” Waymo has long taken the approach of integrating a mix of cameras, radar, and lidar sensors into vehicles built by other manufacturers.
While it’s a more conservative technological approach, it has allowed the company to scale to a fleet of around 4,000 robotaxis across 14 U.S. cities, which provides 500,000 paid trips per week. At Tesla, Elon Musk has long derided the use of lidar, calling it a “crutch.” The company has instead put all its efforts into trying to make fully autonomous cars using just cameras and AI. And Tesla has spent the last few years developing the Cybercab, a purpose-built two-seater gold sedan designed to be autonomous from the get-go.
The Cybercab has no steering wheel or pedals, a relatively small battery, and Tesla plans to pump out thousands of them — a recent filing shows the company aiming to build more than 125,000 annually. Of course, Tesla still needs to show that its self-driving software is capable of full autonomy. The company is years behind schedule; Musk once promised there would be 1 million robotaxis on the road in 2020 — though the company has spent the last year trialing its own Tesla Robotaxi network in a handful of cities in Texas and Florida using modified Model Y SUVs.
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