BofA and Morgan Stanley both target a September 2026 foldable iPhone launch for AAPL, with prediction markets already pricing in an 81% probability. BofA warns foldable display costs could pressure gross margins, while Morgan Stanley sees a $1,500+ price point as an upgrade catalyst for high-value customers. Analysts hold a $331 consensus price target on AAPL, backed by China iPhone sales running 23% higher and record Q1 revenue of $144 billion.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Apple didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is traded around $304.52 on Monday, Aug. 17, up 12.36% year to date, even as Wall Street grows increasingly confident that a foldable iPhone is coming before year-end.
Here is what two closely followed Apple analysts are saying, and what it means for the stock today. Both Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have converged on a similar product roadmap: a foldable iPhone alongside a refreshed Pro model arriving in September 2026, with base, Air and entry-level 'e' variants following in the first half of 2027. That sequencing matters because it shapes how much of the foldable revenue cycle will actually land in Apple's fiscal 2026 results.
Prediction markets are already pricing in a high probability of this happening. On Polymarket, the "Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?" contract is trading at 0.81, implying an 81% crowd probability of a public launch by Dec. 31, 2026. That market has seen $100,556 in total volume, with $29,070 traded in the past week alone, signaling genuine conviction rather than thin speculation.
Bank of America's primary concern centers on margin impact. Foldable displays carry meaningfully higher component costs than standard OLED panels, and BofA flags that the gross margin profile of a first-generation foldable could weigh on the Services-driven margin expansion story Apple has built over the past three years. Apple reported strong operating margins on a trailing basis, and any dilution from premium hardware costs would be closely watched.
Morgan Stanley takes a more demand-focused view. The firm's latest survey work points to 12% year-over-year growth in iPhone production, with overall iPhone demand described as strong. A foldable at a premium price point, likely above $1,500, could serve as an upgrade catalyst for Apple's highest-value customers without cannibalizing core iPhone volumes.
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