As America heads to the polls for one of the most closely scrutinized midterm elections in recent memory, it seems obvious who Russia and Ukraine want to win. Republican President Donald Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Vladimir Putin has offered Moscow opportunities for sanctions relief and closer economic ties. Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, has watched the administration ease pressure on Russia while restricting support for Ukraine.
But is it really that simple? Look more closely at what the people running Russia and Ukraine are actually saying, and the neat division between red and blue gets blurry. Now, as Russian, Ukrainian, and American delegations prepare for peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi next week—and a potential meeting at the White House thanks to Melania Trump—what do Moscow and Kyiv really want from the midterms?
There’s no doubt that influential figures in Moscow see advantages in Republicans retaining control of Congress, particularly when it comes to turning Trump’s willingness to negotiate into sanctions relief. Senior Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed last week that discussions over the fund’s restrictions were already underway. Dmitriev made his own sympathies clear on Monday too, accusing Zelensky of attempting to “undermine the standing of Republicans” ahead of the midterms after the Ukrainian president suggested Trump should call for an energy ceasefire.
The Kremlin’s official position is much less partisan, however. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Moscow was watching the election “very closely” but stressed that whatever the result, Trump would remain president and “conduct his foreign policy” until the end of his term. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was also restrained, saying on October 28 that Moscow had “no illusions” that the vote would dramatically improve relations, given Washington’s “entrenched bipartisan anti-Russian consensus.” That helps explain why Putin’s strategy has focused less on winning over Congress than on cultivating a direct relationship with Trump and the men he trusts.
Receiving the president’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in September, Putin told them, “We find it comfortable to work with you, and the level of trust in this work on our side is quite high.” Witkoff returned in October and praised Putin as a “humanitarian” following the release of an American detainee, while economic envoy Dmitriev continued pursuing economic agreements through direct contacts with Washington. Alexander Morozov, a Russian political analyst, recently told Newsweek that Moscow aimed to “manipulate Trump’s negotiating initiative until Ukraine is weakened.” A Democratic Congress could make sanctions relief harder, but it can’t replace presidential diplomacy. Trump has already demonstrated the discretion he retains, authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel on October 9 and waiving provisions of Congress’s new Russia sanctions law on October 16.
So, Russia may prefer Republicans to win, but Congress is not the main target of its courtship. Moscow is betting that a lame-duck Trump might become more determined to secure a legacy-making peace deal, despite resistance on Capitol Hill. After months of friction with Trump over military assistance, intelligence-sharing and Washington’s economic overtures to Moscow, a Democratic Congress could offer Kyiv some much-needed leverage.
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