In Israel’s convoluted political discourse, just days before a general election that many regard as one of the most consequential in the country’s history, the prevailing perception is that the current coalition and the opposition parties are running neck and neck. This is far from the full picture. Most polls suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners will fall short of a parliamentary majority.
Most opposition parties, at least until the last polling station closes and the final results become known, have ruled out forming a coalition government with the parties that primarily represent Israel’s Palestinian citizens, commonly referred to as the “Arab parties”. As a result, the opposition could also struggle to secure the support needed to govern. If the opinion polls prove accurate on Tuesday and the opposition can overcome this obstacle to forming a governing majority, a new government could emerge, led by retired Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff from the centre right.
However, the fundamental question is not simply whether the Israeli electorate will decide to change the personnel in government but whether the new leadership will also bring about a change in policy on the most crucial issues facing the country and, by extension, the Palestinians and the wider region. My answer is yes but with significant qualifications. After a total of nearly two decades in power over the past three decades, including the last four years at the helm of what has arguably been the most far-right and inept government in Israel’s history, Netanyahu may leave behind a deeply scarred country.
His determination to retain power has come at the cost of national cohesion, exacerbating fear and a profound siege mentality in Israeli society. Throughout his time in office, Netanyahu has cynically exploited and manipulated this deeply ingrained sense of insecurity. The horrific Hamas-led October 7 attacks aggravated these fears, pushing Israeli politics further to the right.
Most opposition parties are themselves centre-right or right-wing, but they differ considerably from the parties that currently make up the governing coalition. To begin with, Netanyahu’s decisions on the most fundamental issues facing the country, including national security, have been distorted by the extraordinary circumstances of his standing trial in three corruption cases on charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery. Consequently, he was prepared first to legitimise and bolster the messianic far right, helping to make its representatives politically acceptable, and then to form a coalition with them.
Other politicians were unwilling to serve under a prime minister facing such charges alongside these extreme national-chauvinistic parties. Eisenkot and Benny Gantz did join an emergency government led by Netanyahu after the October 7 attacks, but left once they realised he was caving in to the far right. A new prime minister, unencumbered by these personal legal considerations, would have greater freedom to govern without the overriding motive of remaining in power at any cost to avoid accountability in his own corruption cases.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
