KYIV/URBANA, Illinois/BERKELEY, California – Twelve years ago, Ukraine was sleepwalking toward catastrophe. Before 2014, Ukraine’s military had been hollowed out by decades of neglect and disarmament. Why spend scarce resources on defense when the 1994 Budapest Memorandum offered security assurances in exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear arsenal?
Why prepare for a conflict that the prevailing intellectual consensus said could never happen? Liberal democracy had triumphed, great-power conflict was a relic and the arc of progress bent toward peace, liberalization and economic convergence. Worse, Ukraine allowed Russia to penetrate its information space, promote pro-Kremlin narratives, cultivate political allies and meddle in Ukraine’s elections.
Under President Viktor Yanukovych, a former Russian citizen served as minister of defense. The army was sabotaged from within.
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