Would slashing net overseas migration “trash the economy” or deliver the necessary population “reset” to restore Australia’s stagnant living standards? Labor and an ascendant One Nation have presented starkly different visions of what a migration program in the national interest looks like. Pauline Hanson, the populist party’s leader, last month announced a plan to cut the number of temporary migrants in Australia by more than 750,000 over three years by targeting international students and family members of skilled migrants.
To achieve that reduction, net overseas migration (Nom) would need to turn negative for three years, the party says, before an ongoing cap of 130,000. That compares with Labor’s longer-term Nom target of 225,000, and to the last official estimate of 292,000 in the year to March. Tony Burke, the home affairs minister, said One Nation’s plan, if enacted, would “trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy”.
Hanson disagrees, and is quick to blame Australia’s high population growth over the past few years for the economy’s woes. In a social media post, she said “vested interest [sic] are warning Australia could face a technical recession if migration is cut”. Their lives have been getting worse because of migration.
Canada has shown living standards improve when migration is cut.” For those looking for international comparisons, Canada has long been a type of sister country to Australia – similar size, similar culture, similar economy. And the North American nation is in the midst of a dramatic migration adjustment that has flattened population growth. Unlike Hanson, Canada’s policymakers have not targeted a specific net overseas migration level.
Instead, they have rolled out a suite of policies to reduce the number of temporary migrants as a share of population from a peak of 7.6% in 2024, to 5%. Canada is about halfway to this goal. The government has done this by reducing temporary arrivals, particularly international students, making it harder to extend stays, and giving some temporary migrants permanency.
Annual population growth has slowed from 3.1% in early 2024 to just 0.5% now. So how well has Canada’s economy coped? And what does their experience tell us about how Australia should respond to growing calls for a more hardline approach to migration?
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