War is once again descending on Yemen, a country once described as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. The country is currently experiencing its most serious spell of fighting since 2022, when a United Nations-brokered truce halted eight years of a war that had killed tens of thousands of people. This week, Yemen’s internationally recognised government launched counterattacks against the Houthi rebels, with fighting intensifying on Monday in the provinces of Taiz, al-Bayda and al-Jawf, the latter seen as one of the main gateways to the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa.
The Houthis, meanwhile, say they have repelled some of the government forces’ advances and attacked Saudi Arabia, which supports the Yemeni government. A wider landscape of regional instability and conflict has created new conditions for Yemen’s unresolved war to flare up once again. Tensions escalated in July after government forces claimed an attack on the Houthi-controlled airport in Sanaa, preventing an aircraft from Iran from landing.
More attacks followed, and it further escalated last week when the Houthis launched a major offensive, trying to advance through western Taiz and southern Hodeidah, towards the port city of al-Makha (Mocha) and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. In this new phase of war, the internationally recognised government has its sights set on retaking the capital from the Iran-backed Houthis. Both, meanwhile, are vying for control of the area near Bab al-Mandeb – which has gained greater significance amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas supplies.
The Houthis have conducted regular attacks on shipping in the Red Sea since 2023. Analysts say that government-aligned forces are better resourced than at any point in the conflict, but they also warn against a swift victory. Analysts say that the Yemeni government’s objective is to retake the whole of the country, after years of civil war and fragmented leadership.
Emboldened by its ability to take back areas in non-Houthi-controlled southern Yemen from the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed separatist group, earlier this year, the government is now setting its sights on the Houthis. Since the defeat of the STC, the Yemeni government has focused on presenting the country’s anti-Houthi forces as a united group with one military chain of command, after years of division. Still, the Houthis remain a “formidable military force”, said al-Basha.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran – and attacks from Iran and its allies on the Gulf – the opportunity has been ripe for the Saudi-backed Yemeni government to take on the Houthis. However, even if the wider confrontation involving Iran is resolved or de-escalated, “it does not necessarily follow that the Saudi-Houthi conflict will end”, said al-Basha. The Houthis could impose “significant” costs on Saudi Arabia through coordinated long-range missile and drone attacks, even as they face increasing pressure on the ground, he said.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
