Russia's influence over Armenia is increasingly being tested by Yerevan's efforts to diversify its security, transport and energy ties. At the center of this debate is the TRIPP project, which is intended to establish a new transport link through southern Armenia connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. While Moscow has argued that the project cannot realistically move forward without Russian involvement, Armenian analysts have pointed to the country's dependence on Russian border forces, energy supplies, and financial flows as potential pressure points.
The TRIPP project could technically be implemented without Russia's participation, political scientist Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at the APRI Armenia think tank, told NEWS.am. According to the expert, there are currently enough companies capable of building all the necessary infrastructure, possessing both the experience and expertise required for the task. As Melkonyan noted, when the Russian side speaks of the project's impossibility without its involvement, it is likely referring to potential obstacles and difficulties that could arise.
"What kind of obstacles are we talking about here? Let me recall that, under the 1992 agreement, Russian border guards are stationed on our territory. Yes, they have left the checkpoint on the Iranian border, but border guards remain along the border itself.
According to Article 4 of the aforementioned agreement, we can assume control of the Armenian-Iranian border only when our own border guards are ready to do so. However, this process could drag on. Russia might refuse to withdraw its border troops from this section of the border anytime soon," Melkonyan explained.
According to him, this could create certain problems for the implementation of the TRIPP project. Furthermore, political scientist Armen Badalyan told the same outlet that Russia holds several significant levers of pressure over Armenia. He made the remarks while commenting on the recent meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.
He first addressed the issue of remittances, noting that the Kremlin could, for instance, block money transfers from Russia to Armenia, a matter involving $1–1.5 billion. "Alongside all this, there is the issue of gas. Do you want to join the European Union?
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