Republican Senator Darline Graham held a 13-point lead over Democrat Annie Andrews in the first independent, nonpartisan poll of South Carolina's U.S. The poll comes just a week after Graham won the party’s nomination to replace her brother Senator Lindsey Graham on the ballot after he died on July 11 from an aortic dissection. Darline Graham was appointed to the position and later ran for a full term with Trump’s support and endorsement.
Newsweek reached out to the Andrews and Graham campaigns for comment via email. Democrats hope to make the Palmetto State competitive in the 2026 midterms, as President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating fuels their optimism about their chances of expanding the battleground into safely Republican states. A flurry of Democratic-sponsored polls have pointed to a close race, but the new Abacus Data survey showed Graham with a more comfortable lead.
The new Abacus Data polling was posted to X on Saturday by the firm’s CEO, David Coletto. The poll was conducted August 26-28 among 500 voters in South Carolina. Abacus Data is a Canadian polling firm that is not affiliated with any political party.
The poll showed Graham leading Andrews by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent. That is a stronger position for Graham compared to the publicly available internal surveys of the race. A new Impact Research poll of the race conducted among 900 likely voters August 14-22 showed Andrews with a 3-point lead.
The Democrat’s support stood at 42 percent, while 39 percent of respondents said they would vote for Graham. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. An earlier Impact Research poll showed both Andrews and Graham at 41 percent support.
It surveyed 700 likely voters August 18-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Andrews previously told Newsweek that she believes the seat could flip this year. "We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest and getting us ready to compete against whoever emerges from this Republican primary.” Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the race to be solid or safe for Republicans.
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