This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: With Gulf turmoil slashing Suez Canal traffic, shipping firms are tempted to try the Arctic for quicker trips between Europe and Asia—but commercial prospects are unlikely to match countries' strategic ambitions for the North Pole. Container ships from China and South Korea aim to transit the Northern Sea Route in Russian territorial waters in the coming weeks, testing its viability as climate change keeps the passage free of ice longer each year.
Industry experts remain skeptical, saying that even if more vessels start going through, the bulk of global shipping will remain along established lines for the foreseeable future. Houthi rebels in Yemen have disrupted traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait by attacking vessels heading to and from the Suez Canal. Many operators now avoid the passage and send ships instead around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, vastly prolonging the journey between Asia and Europe and driving up fuel costs and emissions.
By contrast, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could cut the distance by 30% to 40% compared with using the Suez Canal, and by nearly half compared with going around the southern tip of Africa, the credit insurance group Coface said in April. But what looks good on spreadsheets ignores daunting constraints. "The Arctic link can only be seasonal, from August to October," said Paul Tourret, director of the Higher Institute of Maritime Economics (ISEMAR) in Saint-Nazaire, France.
"And you need ice-class ships, which cost more," he told AFP. That rules out Supramax and other hulking container ships that make up a major share of global traffic because they can offer highly competitive rates. By contrast, the capacity of the Chinese container ship "Dubai Tower," which embarked on the NSR from Ningbo to Europe this month, is one-tenth the size, said Jerome de Ricqles, a sea freight specialist at Upply, a French transport management firm.
Most container ships using the NSR need to be escorted by Russia's fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers. Last year, a record 23 vessels made the passage, up from 15 in 2024, according to a recent study by insurance group Allianz Commercial. That's fewer than the number using the Suez Canal each day.
Even with conflicts in the Middle East, some 35 ships a day transited the Egyptian canal in the first half of this year, down from more than 50 a day before the Houthis started their attacks in 2023. The northern route is "a temporary and minuscule solution with regard to the overall needs," de Ricqles said. According to Coface, just 3.5% of current traffic between East Asia, northern Europe and North America could actually shift to Arctic routes.
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