Representative Ashley Hinson leads Iowa's competitive Senate race by five percentage points against her Democrat opponent in a new poll that was released after she broke with President Donald Trump over his administration's ground beef import policy. Trump announced on August 21 that the United States would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product intended for ground beef to enter the country over 90 days without the higher tariffs normally applied after import quotas are exceeded. The president said importers had committed to selling the beef at 25 percent below market prices, framing the measure as short-term relief for families grappling with high grocery costs.
However, the decision immediately drew sharp opposition from cattle producers, who warned that discounted foreign supply would depress domestic prices and discourage ranchers from rebuilding the national herd. On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order directing the Interior Department to decide within 90 days whether gray wolves and Mexican wolves meet federal criteria for reduced or removed Endangered Species Act protections. The administration presented the wolf management move as a way to help ranchers combat livestock predation and to ease industry anger over its expansion of lower-tariff beef imports.
In Iowa, the political fallout carries high stakes for Hinson. The Trump-endorsed Republican is running for an open Senate seat while distancing herself from the White House's trade decision. Speaking with reporters last month at the Iowa State Fair, Hinson said Trump’s decision to increase beef imports was a “bad idea.” Hinson’s disagreement with the president over the beef import policy is significant since Iowa has a major cattle industry, while Trump's approval rating with rural voters is underwater in a race that could help determine control of the Senate.
Ahead of the November midterms, Hinson must maintain strong support among base Republicans while appealing to independent voters, who currently lean narrowly toward her Democratic opponent, Josh Turek. The two are running to replace Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, who is not seeking reelection. Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012.
But Trump performed well in the state in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024. Newsweek contacted Hinson and Turek’s campaigns for comment via email on Saturday morning. In an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey that was published on September 3, Hinson was leading Turek by five points 50 percent to 45 percent.
Her support increased by two points from the organization’s August poll, while Turek remained at 45 percent. The Nexstar Media-sponsored survey was conducted from August 31 to September 1 among 750 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Respondents were contacted using text-to-web methods and additional panel interviews, with the results weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region.
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