When a woman driving home to her Gloucestershire village in England in the early hours of Sunday morning found her driveway blocked by three white vans, she immediately called the police. The call triggered a whirlwind of dramatic events; within 15 minutes, armed officers had swooped on the scene, and a major incident was declared at the nearby Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford, a base United States bombers have used to strike Iran. Some 85 homes were evacuated as a bomb disposal robot picked its way between the vans, and five British men in their 20s were arrested on suspicion of explosives and terrorism offences.
As army explosives experts examined the vehicles and counterterrorism detectives began questioning the suspects, US President Donald Trump, some 5,800km (3,600 miles) away, was already hailing the arrests. But Westminster was more cautious, with United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham urging people “not to speculate”. Iran’s embassy in London said it “categorically rejects” any link, adding that such speculation would only “fuel Iranophobia propaganda in the UK”.
Then on Monday, all five men were released on bail, leaving Trump “surprised”. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio went further, saying the incident “clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor”. He did not name one, though he noted that Iran had “openly threatened to attack American interests globally”.
The swift succession of arrests, claims and subsequent release has left a confused picture, raising questions about whether British authorities were indeed tracking the suspects – as Trump claimed – and whether the case is thinner than Washington suggests, say analysts. But many analysts Al Jazeera spoke to said that the manner in which the suspects were released suggests that the UK government had little evidence, at least at this point, that the men were plotting a major attack. Analysts said there were few signs of a sophisticated plot.
Under the Terrorism Act 2000, police can hold terrorism suspects for up to 14 days without charge, he said, adding that officers who believed they had caught genuine attackers would use that time. Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University and a former senior Royal Air Force officer who served in Iraq, shares the same sentiment. Police have not said whether any explosives were found, with Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor stressing that the men “absolutely remain under investigation”.
One of the vans bore the logo “Fuel 2You”, which BBC Verify found no evidence of being a legitimate company. Ashraf said many homes in the area, according to the internet, are not connected to the mains gas network and rely on heating oil stored in tanks in their gardens. He said those tanks have become more valuable as fuel prices have soared during the Iran war.
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