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Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz?

Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz?

aljazeera.com 27.09.2026 10:49 2 views
Iran is looking for alternatives to export its oil as the US blockades its southern ports.

Tehran, Iran – With Iran’s southern ports subject to a United States naval blockade, Tehran is looking for alternatives to export oil and import goods. The Caspian Sea on Iran’s northern coast is seen as one portal for Iran to the outside world. Recent efforts at the United Nations to end the deadlock between Iran and the US appear to have failed as US President Donald Trump said Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was unacceptable.

With no breakthrough in sight on ending the war launched by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28, Tehran is making adjustments to export oil and import essential goods. But maritime trade via the Caspian Sea has its own logistical challenges, experts said. The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest landlocked body of water, is shared by Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Shipping on the sea has been increasingly challenged by declining water levels in recent years. In April, UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen said Caspian water levels had dropped by about 2 metres (6.6ft) since the 1990s. Sea levels are projected to recede by an additional 8 to 21 metres (26ft to 69ft) by the end of the century.

Shahram Fadakar, director general of the Iranian Department of Environment’s Office for Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Protection, told local media last week that water levels have been dropping by more than 20cm (7.9 inches) annually over the past two to three years. This could affect trade between all Caspian countries, including Iran. This month, Masoud Polmeh, secretary-general of the Shipping Association of Iran, told state-linked media that Iran’s northern ports could once handle berth vessels weighing up to 6,000 tonnes.

Due to reduced water levels, they can now handle only 4,000-tonne vessels. Iranian ships entering the Caspian Sea via Russia’s Volga River have become stuck due to low water levels, sometimes remaining stationary for days and weeks at a time before their crews are rescued. The vast majority of Iran’s maritime trade has been conducted via its southern ports, but the US naval embargo and air strikes on infrastructure are forcing Tehran to shift trade to the Caspian Sea and its land borders.

While there are currently no active military attacks against interests in the north, Vali Kaleji, an independent writer and researcher in Iran on Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, said changes in logistical operations have put huge strains on Iran’s land borders. At the Norduz border crossing with Armenia, as many as 1,800 trucks queue for several days at a time to enter Iran. At other terminals, wait times range from 10 to 15 days to enter Iran although Kaleji said this is not due solely to freight shifting to Iran’s roads.

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