Democratic Senate nominee Charles Booker is running behind Republican Andy Barr in Kentucky's open Senate race, according to the latest available polling, even as the seat's incumbent, retiring Senator Mitch McConnell, remains absent from Washington amid unresolved questions about his health. A poll released by Booker's own campaign found the Democrat trailing Barr 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, a nine-point gap that campaign strategists cast as evidence of a "winnable" race even as independent analysts continue to rate Kentucky as one of the least competitive Senate contests in the country. The survey found that more than a third of likely voters said they could still change their minds, and a majority disapproved of President Donald Trump's tariffs.
"By working both hard and smart and with investments, this is a winnable race, plain and simple," Booker strategist Kamau Marshall told FOX 56 News after the release of the poll. Despite Booker's campaign optimism, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Republicans roughly a 93 percent to 95 percent chance of retaining the longtime ruby red seat. The state last elected a Democratic senator in 1992.
The Global Strategy Group survey was conducted from August 24 to August 27 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Newsweek reached out to the Barr and Booker campaigns, and to McConnell's office, for comment. McConnell, 84, has not appeared in the Senate since June 11, when his office said he was hospitalized after a fall that briefly knocked him unconscious.
He later disclosed he also developed a mild case of pneumonia, and said doctors ruled out a stroke, heart attack, concussion or broken bones. He was discharged to a rehabilitation center and, in early August, said he had returned home to continue recovering. The nearly three-month absence, which has narrowed the GOP's Senate majority to 52-47, has drawn sustained pressure from Democratic Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear—a popular governor some have discussed as a 2028 White House contender.
Beshear has sent McConnell a series of increasingly pointed letters demanding proof that he retains the "capacity to serve." He also warned that he would ask Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune to investigate further if McConnell did not address Kentuckians directly. Beshear has also argued that Kentucky's 2024 law barring him from appointing a temporary replacement—and instead requiring a special election—could face a legal challenge, since the state constitution says vacancies "shall be filled by appointment of the Governor." The uncertainty surrounding McConnell's absence has also fueled online speculation, including unfounded claims from MAGA influencer Laura Loomer that the senator's condition was being concealed or that photos released of him were altered. University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss has cautioned that a special election in the state would carry real risk for Republicans.
"Special elections are highly unpredictable, with low turnout that can produce outcomes at odds with the overall orientation of the state's electorate," Voss told CNBC. House Oversight Chair James Comer, a Kentucky Republican, said this month that McConnell's staff hopes he returns when the Senate reconvenes next week. Barr has largely sided with McConnell's office over Beshear.
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