Vladimir Putin has spent years probing for weakness in the West. The Baltic states may be where he tries next. Public reporting citing U.S. officials says American intelligence assessments contemplate a limited Russian attack on a NATO country, from a cyberattack or unmarked armed groups to a small land incursion along the alliance’s eastern flank.
The reported window begins as early as this fall, a change from the previous U.S. view that Putin would avoid provoking NATO while still fighting in Ukraine. That should concern every American. Putin could convince himself he has found a weak link in NATO, gamble that the alliance will hesitate, and trigger a much larger conflict.
Deterrence depends on credibility. Putin must not be given any reason to doubt either NATO’s resolve or its ability to defend the Baltics. NATO’s guarantee protects Americans, too: Article 5 has been invoked only once, after September 11, 2001, when our allies stood with us.
President Trump has repeatedly questioned whether the United States should defend NATO members, saying last year that “if they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.” He has since reaffirmed America’s Article 5 commitment, but now insists Putin is “not going to be attacking a NATO territory.” I hope he is right. But mixed messages carry real risks. Earlier this year, I warned President Trump that rhetoric questioning America’s commitment to NATO risks weakening the alliance’s deterrent power.
Putin should never be left wondering whether the United States would stand behind a Baltic ally. Putin is also watching our military capacity. As I said recently, Putin is counting our munitions and thinks we are weakened.
President Trump’s war with Iran has raised serious concerns about stocks of weapons critical to defending Europe, including Patriot interceptors. Fresh public reporting says the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war. One person familiar with the intelligence described Moscow’s calculation bluntly: America is “depleted and can’t intervene.” CIA Director John Ratcliffe subsequently made an unusual trip to Moscow amid reports that he warned Russia against attacking NATO, with particular concern about the Baltic states.
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