Democrat David Jolly is trailing Republican Representative Byron Donalds by just 2 points in the race for Florida governor, according to a new YouGov poll, the latest sign that the contest to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis is tighter than many expected. The survey of 3,813 likely voters, conducted September 28 to October 5, found Donalds at 47 percent and Jolly at 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The gap falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns via email for comment. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles won reelection in 1994, and Republicans have spent the past decade turning the onetime battleground into one of their most dependable states. President Donald Trump, who moved his legal residence from New York to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach during his first term, carried Florida by about 13 points in 2024.
A close race for Trump's pick in his own home state would say a good deal about how much the national mood has moved before the November 3 midterms. The YouGov sample leans Republican by registration, 45 percent to 31 percent, and respondents said they backed Trump over Kamala Harris by 11 points in 2024. Even so, 54 percent of likely voters said they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, including 49 percent who strongly disapprove.
Forty-six percent approve. Jolly's support is concentrated among younger voters. He leads Donalds 59 percent to 28 percent among voters ages 18 to 29 and 54 percent to 35 percent among those 30 to 44.
Donalds leads 55 percent to 40 percent among voters 65 and older, who make up 39 percent of the poll's likely electorate. The poll also found Jolly ahead among Hispanic voters, 49 percent to 44 percent, a group that swung sharply toward Republicans in DeSantis' 2022 reelection and Trump's 2024 win. Donalds leads white voters without a college degree 59 percent to 33 percent, while white college graduates are nearly split, 47 percent for Donalds and 45 percent for Jolly.
There is little crossover voting, and what exists favors the Democrat: 5 percent of Trump's 2024 voters back Jolly, against 1 percent of Harris voters who back Donalds. The broader picture is less settled. Some recent surveys show Jolly narrowly ahead, while others give Donalds a high single-digit or double-digit lead.
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