Republicans are investing millions of dollars into House seats they redrew to become more conservative during a round of mid-decade redistricting that scrambled the congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms, according to a new report. GOP-controlled legislatures redrew maps in states like Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas ahead of the midterms in hopes of averting losses. While Democrats redrew their map in California and are likely to net a seat in Utah, Republicans were seen as the winners of the redistricting arms race.
But as the November 3 elections approach, Republicans are finding themselves having to invest significant money into some of the seats they hoped would be easy flips under their new configurations. Republicans are trailing in the latest congressional generic ballot polls, with RealClearPolitics showing Democrats up 7.9 points in their polling aggregate as of Wednesday, and Democrats hope to expand the congressional battleground into more conservative states that backed President Donald Trump by double digits in the 2024 election. Republicans have spent nearly $100 million on advertisements in these districts, according to a new report from Punchbowl News, citing AdImpact for political ads.
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Spokesman Mike Marinella on Wednesday wrote in a statement to Newsweek that Republicans are “well-positioned to hold the House and grow our majority.” “Democrats’ embarrassing redistricting efforts from Virginia to California have been colossal failures, leaving them to defend 22 vulnerable House Democrats squatting in districts President Trump won across the map,” he said. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House, so Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to regain control. If Democrats fend off GOP challengers in the seats they already hold, their path to a majority would become much easier.
In addition to leading generic ballot polls, Democrats had an 89 percent chance of flipping the House on Kalshi and a 92 percent chance on Polymarket as of Wednesday. Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends.
They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately. There are at least nine battleground House races that have triggered significant investments from Republicans, according to Punchbowl News. In Florida’s 14th District, Republicans have invested $11.5 million, according to the report.
The district, currently held by Democratic Representative Kathy Castor, is based around Tampa but has been redrawn to take on more conservative suburban areas outside of the city. Under its new lines, it backed Trump by more than 10 points, meaning it now has a conservative lean but is still seen as winnable for Democrats under the right conditions. It’s seen as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
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