Democrats are eyeing Alaska's gubernatorial race as a rare opportunity to win the governor's office for the first time in nearly three decades in a state that has generally favored Republicans in statewide elections. But with former state Senator Tom Begich suspending his campaign Friday night, it remains unclear if Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins can unify Democratic voters and independents to mount a successful campaign against Republican candidates, including Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson, who also advanced to the general election after the state’s jungle primary. Alaska voters narrowed the field in the state's top four primary earlier this month, sending two Democrats, including Begich, and two Republicans to November's general election under the state's ranked-choice voting system.
While forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as favorable to Republicans, limited polling has pointed to a competitive contest. Begich's exit could reshape the field by prompting voters to consolidate behind remaining candidates, though it remains unclear how those votes will be redistributed, with prediction markets showing Kreiss-Tomkins' odds soaring. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system further complicates the outlook ahead of November.
Newsweek has reached out to Wilson, Bronson, and Kreiss-Tomkins for comment via email on Saturday. In his Friday statement sent to Newsweek, Begich announced that he was suspending his campaign, citing the high cost of the race and arguing that candidates with similar Democratic priorities would be better served by consolidating support. The statement noted that prior to his suspension, he spoke directly with Kreiss-Tomkins’ campaign, stating, “We share a commitment to those priorities, and those conversations gave me confidence that they will remain at the forefront of this race.” He added, “Rather than competing over visions that share so much in common, we are choosing to put our strength behind a shared vision for Alaska.” The team noted that continuing their campaign would cost millions of dollars, stating, “But when so many Alaskans are already stretched thin, we cannot keep asking them to give more and more just to compete with much larger amounts of money flowing into politics in Alaska.” The campaign had raised more than $1.3 million, with 93 percent coming from Alaskans.
He and his running partner, Julia Hnilicka, spoke to voters about the decision in a nearly 6-minute-long video posted on social media on Friday. In their video, Hnilicka noted that "more than 30,000 Alaskans voted for Tom and me in this primary, and more than 60,000 voted for the two Democratic tickets. That tells us something important.
Alaskans are ready for change." Begich and former state Representative Kreiss-Tomkins, both Democrats, advanced to the general election after finishing first and second, respectively in the August 18 primary. Kreiss-Tomkins led the field with 22 percent of the vote, while Begich’s support stood at 20.8 percent, in the unofficial tally count. Republican candidates followed behind, with Wilson securing about 10 percent and Bronson about 8 percent.
Begich's exit removes one Democratic candidate from the race and could allow support on the left to coalesce around Kreiss-Tomkins. With his suspension, Republicans dominate the ballot. Under Alaska’s election laws, if a top-four candidate drops out of the race by the deadline of August 31, then they will be replaced by the next highest finisher.
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