Democrats have their eyes on a potential upset in Kansas, where recent polls show the U.S. Senate race in a dead heat and the Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Republican with roughly four weeks until Election Day. The position is held by Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, a doctor, who is battling Democrat Adam Hamilton for the seat that has been held by the GOP since 1919, the longest ever for any party, High Plains Public Radio says.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate. President Donald Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt.
But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.S. Newsweek reached out to both Marshall and Hamilton's campaigns via email on Monday for comment. According to recent polling, Hamilton either leads by a very slim margin or the race is statistically tied.
However, on prediction market site Kalshi Monday night, Marshall has 66 percent versus Hamilton's 34 percent. According to prediction market site Polymarket, Marshall has 68 percent compared to 33 percent for Hamilton. Cook says Hamilton is running an "increasingly strong race" and has been launching an attack ad against Marshall, an OB-GYN, over billing and collection practices at his office.
Marshall has branded the ad targeting his practice a "lie." The forecaster also highlights that agriculture—and economic concerns impacting fertilizer and gas—are major factors in the Sunflower State and the rising prices make the race more competitive. Meanwhile, Marshall has branded Hamilton as a "radical Democrat," adding that "his sermons are identical to the Democratic Party platform." Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump's dropping approval ratings in state and national polls as the midterm elections loom. The president's overall approval and ranking on key policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are flagging affordability concerns.
Shapiro, professor of political science at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, told Newsweek on Monday when asked if Democrats realistically could flip the seat: "If this is a 'Wave' election it can flip. Or even otherwise since Hamilton is a very good moderate Democrat running against a very vulnerable opponent. This would be then a one off election unless this establishes a viable precedent for future Democratic candidates in Kansas.
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