Two Senate races in states that President Donald Trump won decisively in 2024 are now rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, as clashes in Iowa and Texas turn increasingly competitive, widening Democrats' potential path to a Senate majority. The rating changes come as Democrats seek to regain control of the Senate while edging into traditionally Republican territory, including Iowa and Texas, where Trump won by roughly 13 and 14 percentage points, respectively, in 2024. Democrats also saw movement in their favor in the gubernatorial contests, adding to signs of increasing competitiveness across the two states.
In its update, Cook described the political landscape in Iowa as “uniquely challenging for the GOP.” While Republicans remain favored to hold many of the seats under their control, the shifting outlook in Iowa and Texas suggests the political map may be expanding beyond the traditional battleground states. Democrats need to maintain their seats and flip four to retake control of the Senate, as Republicans carry a 53-45 majority in the upper chamber. (Independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King also caucus with the Democratic Party.) Cook's outlook also highlights the challenges Democrats face in defending their own battleground seats, including Michigan, where the open Senate race is also rated as a toss-up. Newsweek also reached out to the campaigns of Texas Republican candidate Ken Paxton, along with Iowa's Josh Turek, a Democrat, and his Senate race foe Ashley Hinson, a Republican, for comment via email on Thursday.
Democrats say concerns over the economy, Trump's standing with voters and a series of stronger-than-expected election results have improved their prospects, while Republicans maintain that the political environment will favor the GOP in November. High-profile primaries and recent polling have reshaped several midterm races, elevating new candidates and prompting several major election forecasters to revisit their ratings. The Cook Political Report has classified a handful of closely watched Senate races as “toss-ups,” including, Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Michigan, and on Thursday, shifted the Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-up status.
Both races were previously seen as “Lean Republican.” In the Iowa update, the forecaster said, “even though the GOP’s nominee Representative Ashley Hinson is one of their best recruits—and is running more competitively than retiring Senator Joni Ernst would have been—the political environment is uniquely challenging for the GOP here.” In Texas, Trump-endorsed Attorney General Paxton's primary defeat of Senator John Cornyn seems to have added uncertainty to a race once seen as reliably Republican. With Texas and Iowa shifted to toss-up status, Cook no longer lists any relatively tight Senate races as "Lean Republican." It rates three contests as "Lean Democrat," including North Carolina's open seat, currently held by Republicans. The Cook analysis also updated both of the states' gubernatorial races, updating Texas from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," and Iowa from "toss-up" to "lean Democrat." All four of the statewide updates bode well for Democrats.
With 75 days until the midterms, candidates are expected to pour millions into Iowa, Texas and other competitive contests as both parties fight for control of the Senate. Representative Hinson is battling state Representative Turek in the Iowa Senate race. They are running to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who chose not to run for reelection.
Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat in the state since Tom Harkin's election in 2008. Iowa was viewed as a battleground for much of the 2000s, with former President Barack Obama carrying the state by about 10 points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. But Trump performed well there in each of his presidential bids, winning by 10 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020 and 13 points in 2024.
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